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Serious differences of Chinese steel outlook

Analysts with the world's largest miner outlook for China's steel deepening differences. China is the world's largest steel producer.

Investment bank UBS (UBS) will be the next five years, China's steel production is expected compound annual growth rate from 1.4% down to 0.

However, the world's largest miners - BHP Billiton (BHP Billiton) and Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) expects China's steel production (last year reached 820 million tons) will continue to grow until the beginning of the next decade into the stationary phase. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto among the world's largest iron ore miner, iron ore is a key ingredient in steelmaking.

"Iron ore mining company is still forecasting a CAGR of China's steel output in 2025 will remain at 2.5% level, but we do not agree," UBS said in its report, "Our analysis shows that China's steel production has touched the turning point. "

Yesterday, Rio Tinto iron ore operations director Andrew • Harding (Andrew Harding) at a meeting on Australia, said China's output must grow at an annual rate of slightly more than 1 percent, crude steel output to reach 10 in about 2030 million tons.

"Urbanization will continue to serve as a key driving force, while income growth makes the demand for automobiles and transportation facilities increased, also will support the future growth of China's steel demand," Harding said, "Manufacturing Competitiveness growing demand for steel will also promote growth, for example, China's exports of machinery and appliances continued to grow, especially in the case of recovery in developed economies. "

President of BHP Billiton's iron ore operations in charge of Jimmy • Wilson (Jimmy Wilson), said China's crude steel production will reach a peak from 1000 to 1100 million tons in the mid-2020s, and in 2030 entered a stable period.

China's steel industry accounts for about 70% of global seaborne iron ore demand. On weaker demand and increased supply concerns pushing the commodity prices fell 17.8 percent this year, while in 2014 the price has been dropped to $ 71.2 $ 134. Last week, the price of iron ore for the first time fell to $ 60 / ton since 2009.

However, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto continue to maintain their own strategies, in excess supply in the market for iron ore poured more.

Harding said that Rio Tinto expects this year will be about 100 million tons of iron ore production of new supply, while 85 million tons of production will leave the market, which will largely offset the new supply.

 

However, many analysts say, this prediction was too optimistic, if there is no recovery in Chinese demand, oversupply situation will worsen. (British "Financial Times" Sanderson Neil Henry • • Hume reported translator / Marcus).More informations,pleased contact us-one of the professional stainless steel sheet manufacturers